[ Home ] [ Membership ] [ Contents ] [ Search ] [ Links ]


 

 

 

Home

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fact Sheet:  April 9, 2004 U.S. Census Bureau County Estimates and Components of Population Change, 2000-2003

Latest Census Bureau statistics show Oldham County's growth rate remains near the top of Kentucky counties:  Population estimated at 50,517 as of July 1, 2003.

The Census Bureau in conjunction with the Federal-State Cooperative Program for Population Estimates produces annual estimates of the total resident population for the nation, states, and counties. The latest data available, released April 9, 2004 reflects population estimates as of 1 July 2003.  Oldham County 's population was estimated to be 50,517—officially topping the half-century mark for the first time.

Population estimates are prepared annually for years after the last published decennial census. These estimates for the United States, states, and counties use the Census 2000 data as the estimates base and are updated from July 2002 estimates.  The Census Bureau uses data on births, deaths, and domestic and international migration to determine its estimates.

The data are available from the Kentucky State Data Center and Kentucky Population Research, University of Louisville Urban Studies Institute, at http://ksdc.louisville.edu/kpr/popest/est.htm.

Table 1 below, extracted from official U.S. Census Bureau data, reflects Oldham County 's estimated population, with yearly estimates from the 2000 census.  (The Census Bureau revised Oldham County 's official 2000 census figure upwards a total of 440 people due to an undercount of citizens living near the Jefferson County line.)

Table 1:  Annual Estimates of the Population for Counties of Kentucky : 

April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2003

Geographic Area

Population estimates

April 1, 2000

July 1, 2003

July 1, 2002

July 1, 2001

July 1, 2000

Estimates base

Census

Kentucky

4,117,827

4,089,822

4,067,336

4,048,635

4,042,209

4,041,769

Oldham County

50,517

49,192

47,991

47,024

46,618

46,178

Note: The April 1, 2000 Population Estimates base reflects changes to the Census 2000 population from the Count Question Resolution program and geographic program revisions.

Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, ( Kentucky Population Research, Urban Studies Institute, University of Louisville )

Release Date:  April 9, 2004

Oldham County continues to experience one of Kentucky 's highest growth rates both in percent of growth as well as total population change. This continues the demographic trend from the 1990s in which Oldham County grew nearly 40 percent according to the 2000 Census.  Oldham County 's July 1, 2003 estimated population of 50,517 reflects a 3,899 person increase from the April 1, 2000 official revised census figure of 46,618.  The nearly 4,000 person increase was the fifth highest in Kentucky and is very close to Jefferson County 's net increase of an estimated 5,413 persons.  However, given the relative sizes of the two counties, Oldham County 's increase may be considered more significant in terms of infrastructure impact (schools, roads, sewers, fire, police and rescue, parks, etc.).  

The 8.4 percent increase in estimated population growth ranked fourth of the Commonwealth's 120 counties.  Oldham County 's increase accounted for over five percent of Kentucky 's net estimated population increase of 75,618.

Table 2 below shows the top 15 Kentucky counties with respect to estimated population change from April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2003.  The columns on the right provide the relative rankings of numeric growth and percentage growth respectively.  

 

Table 2:  Cumulative Estimates of Population Change for Counties of Kentucky and County Rankings : April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2003

Geographic Area

Population estimates

Change, 2000 to 2003

 

Change, 2000 to 2003

July 1, 2003

April 1, 2000
estimates
base

Number

Percent

Number

Percent

Boone County

97,139

85,991

11,148

13.0

1

2

Fayette County

266,798

260,512

6,286

2.4

2

35

Jefferson County

699,017

693,604

5,413

0.8

3

67

Madison County

74,814

70,872

3,942

5.6

4

12

Oldham County

50,517

46,618

3,899

8.4

5

4

Bullitt County

64,909

61,236

3,673

6.0

6

10

Scott County

36,726

33,061

3,665

11.1

7

3

Warren County

95,778

92,522

3,256

3.5

8

22

Laurel County

55,488

52,715

2,773

5.3

9

13

Shelby County

35,900

33,337

2,563

7.7

10

6

Spencer County

14,301

11,766

2,535

21.5

11

1

Jessamine County

41,508

39,041

2,467

6.3

12

9

Nelson County

39,635

37,477

2,158

5.8

13

11

Hardin County

96,052

94,170

1,882

2.0

14

42

Pulaski County

58,013

56,217

1,796

3.2

15

25

Kentucky

4,117,827

4,042,209

75,618

1.9

(X)

(X)

Note: The April 1, 2000 Population Estimates base reflects changes to the Census 2000 population from the Count Question Resolution program and geographic program revisions.

Table 2: Cumulative Estimates of Population Change for Counties of Kentucky and County Rankings : April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2003 (CO-EST2003-02-21)

Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau   ( Kentucky Population Research, Urban Studies Institute, University of Louisville )

Release Date:  April 9, 2004

 

Table 3 outlines the cumulative estimates of the components of population change for Kentucky and Oldham County respectively for the period April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2003.

Table 3:  Cumulative Estimates of the Components of Population Change for Counties of Kentucky :

April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2003

Geographic Area

Total Population Change*

Natural Increase

Net Migration

Total

Births

Deaths

Total

Net International Migration

Net Internal Migration

Kentucky

75,618

47,061

177,581

130,520

30,493

17,753

12,740

.Oldham County

3,899

883

1,727

844

2,955

104

2,851

*Total population change includes residual - see "State and County Terms & Definitions"

Note: The April 1, 2000 Population Estimates base reflects changes to the Census 2000 population from the Count Question Resolution program and geographic program revisions.

Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, ( Kentucky Population Research, Urban Studies Institute, University of Louisville )

Release Date:  April 9, 2004

While the net migration of new persons into Oldham County accounted for 76 percent of Oldham County ’s estimated growth, the 1,727 births and resulting net natural increase of 883 are significant for several reasons.  The ratio of births to deaths is much higher in Oldham County than in Kentucky as a whole.  Oldham County remains a relatively “young county” with respect to the percentage of children in the overall population, a trend borne out in the 2000 census.

The births, combined with net internal migrations of children included in the total of 2,955 persons, will most likely continue to challenge the Oldham County Board of Education’s efforts to build facilities and accompanying teaching and administrative personnel strength in the coming years.

Oldham County estimated net internal migration since the 2000 census is 2,851 compared to Jefferson County ’s net internal migration loss of 8,616. Clearly, Oldham County remains a choice relocation area for in and out-of state moves and job transferees.

Table 4 breaks shows the annual estimates of the components of population change for Kentucky and Oldham County for the one year period July 1, 2002 to July 1, 2003.  Trends from the previous years continued.

Table 4:  Annual Estimates of the Components of Population Change for Counties of Kentucky :

July 1, 2002 to July 1, 2003

Geographic Area

Total Population Change*

Natural Increase

Net Migration

Total

Births

Deaths

Total

Net International Migration

Net Internal Migration

Kentucky

28,005

14,385

55,140

40,755

14,008

5,416

8,592

.Oldham County

1,325

285

523

238

1,023

32

991

*Total population change includes residual - see "State and County Terms & Definitions"

Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, ( Kentucky Population Research, Urban Studies Institute, University of Louisville )

Release Date:  April 9, 2004

Additionally, the University of Louisville Urban Studies Institute produces projections of Kentucky state and county resident populations by age and sex. These projections are based on assumptions about future births, deaths, and migration. Although the Institute provides three alternative series—low, middle, and high—the middle series is preferred and generally recommended for planning purposes. Projections are revised periodically. The projections released August 5, 2003 replaced all previous forecasts produced by the Institute.

A summary table and chart from the University of Louisville Urban Studies Institute for Oldham County are provided below:

 

Table 5:  Populations 1990-2000, with Middle, Low, and High Projections 2005-2030.

1990

1995

2000

 

 

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

33,263

40,611

46,178

 

Middle

52,448

58,666

65,238

72,416

80,334

88,683

Oldham County

 

Low

51,637

56,766

<